The poll of polls of the latest surveys of the 5 institutes looks like this:
Center-Right Alliance: 49.9%
Left-Green block: 43.2%
Sweden-Democrats: 5.2%
Some issues:
* During the last days of the election the left is surging and the right falling.
* The Swedish-Democrats probably will do better than polls indicate. I personally don't believe this effect is very large, but I have friends who do.
* While it is all but certain that the center-right will win, the question is if they will get their own majority without the Sweden-Democrats.
* A symbolically important question is if the Moderate party will become larger than the Social-Democratic party. It looks very close. My guess is that the Social-Democrats will probably inch ahead.
NEW Data:
The results from the exit polls are:
Center-right alliance 49.1%
The left: 45.1%
Sweden-Democrats: 4.6%
In previous elections the SD got 1/4 to 1/3 more in end result than in exit polls. I predict 6% for SD before the night ends.
This means with high likelihood there will be no majority government, unless the Green party crosses from left to right and joins the Reinfeldt government.
According to Exit polls the left did better among first time voters than last election, due to the success of the Green party.
Update 2
The preliminary results are that the left did even worse than the exit polls suggested. The center-right might get own majority.
Update 3
With 98% of the districts counted, its looks like:
Center-Right 49.2% of the votes, 49.6% of the seats
Left: 43.7% of votes, 44.7% of seats
Sweden-Democrats: 5.7% of votes, 5.7% of seats.
This means the center-right has won, but does not receive their own majority.
Update 4
Final results:
Center-right 49.3%
Left: 43.6%
Sweden-Democrats: 5.7% of votes
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