Sunday, January 26, 2003

Japanese Interest Rates Briefly Fall Below Zero

Japan's continuing economic problems took the world of economic data into new and previously uncharted territory on Friday as overnight call rates fell below zero for the first time in the country's history.The overnight call rate on Y15bn of funds traded between foreign banks fell to minus 0.01 per cent. Because of the negative rate, borrowers are
Japanese Banks Get Nervous about their Capital Adequacy Ratios

The plan announced Wednesday by Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group to issue 150 billion yen worth of convertible preferred shares to Goldman Sachs is expected to lead to similar moves by other Japanese banks seeking to raise capital before the fiscal year ends March 31. According to Japanese sources, banking groups including Mizuho
Too Much Saving in Japan?

This piece raises a question which is very much to the point, is there too much saving in Japan? Secondly, if there is, is this structurally related to the demographics of contemporary Japan. This question is very much to the point since most of the current enthusiasm for the appointment of an 'inflation targeting' governor at the Bank of Japan results from a diagnosis
Ageing Society: Time to Recognise the Consequences

Many western economists still stubbornly fail to recognise that the move to the "ageing society" marks a sea change for our economic systems, with important deflationary consequences. This latest round of debate in Japan over the consumption tax and social security subsidies should serve as a timely reminder to all of us of what is waiting, just
Japan Government Borrowing Set to Soar

Japanese public finances sit uncomfortably somewhere between a rock and a very hard place indeed. This is brought home again this week by the disclosure that the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy in its final draft of the revised Structural Reform and Medium-Term Economic and Fiscal Prospectus, prepared by the Cabinet Office, estimates that bond
Japan: Don't Sqeeze Me Too Tight

Japan economic specialist Richard Katz, writing in today's Financial Times, questions the advisability of turning the fiscal pressure screw in Japan. It's difficult to see how a country suffering deflation (or the imminent threat of it ) can benefit from further fiscal tightening. If in doubt ask the Germans.

It is not easy for a rich country to get itself into
Dollar Up, or Dollar Down

So which way is it this year for the greenback? A bevy of commentators (including the IMF and the OECD) regard the dollar as seriously overvalued. In principle I agree. The real problem is to identify a sound substitute. In this piece Morgan Stanley's Stephen Len argues for the dollar downside effect dominating. (Why is their global economic forum so full of talent, is
Japan About to Try to Lower the Yen

Signals coming out of Japan, difficult as they are to read at times, seem to indicate that a change in exchange rate policy may be imminent. On Mondayprime minister Junichiro Koizumi added his voice to a growing body of evidence that his government, which regards the yen's rise as reflecting external weaknesses rather than any significant improvement in its