Ignoring an unusual exception, you need 4% of the vote to be represented in the Swedish parliament. Above this the votes are allocated proportionally. Compared to the U.S parties are strong, it is extraordinarily rare for Swedish members of parliament to vote against their party.
There are 8 viable parties. 3 on the left, 4 on the right, and one anti-immigration party outside the left-right division.
Here is the average vote of the Left the last few decades:
Next, let's provide some historical background:
1. The Social Democratic worker’s Party.
The historically dominant party in the country, called by some the most successful party in the democratic world. One nuance that foreigners sometimes miss is that part of the reason the Social Democrats win so often is that they positioning themselves in Sweden as a center-left, pro-growth, even pro-business party. This strategy often work.
Here is their historical vote share:
As they radicalized since 1968, they have lost votes. Note also that the variability in Swedish elections and opinion polls has increased dramatically. A generation or so ago, block-voting was the norm, sticking to “your” party depending on what class or social segment you belong to, and largely diregarding the political winds.
The Social Democrats have lost working class votes. Part of the reason is the shrinking working class, another part is weaker class identification among voters. To some extent the Social Democrats have compensated this by getting new voters, especially non-European immigrants. Furthermore, while the working party have been getting weaker, some of the support is lost to the former communists and to the new Green Party, that generally votes with the Social Democrats.
They lost the 2006 election because of high hidden unemployment in Sweden. Most Swedish voters have a strong Lutheran work ethic, and dislike the idea that a large part of the population are “outsiders” in terms of labor market participation.
Their post war (1948-2006) mean vote share is 43.7%.
Their latest election result (2006) was 35.0%.
Current poll average 30.4%
The most important historical development in Swedish politics is that The Social Democratic workers party has gradually lost power and prestige, and for the first time they have promised that if their block wins they are going to form a coalition government with the two smaller leftist parties.
The Social Democrats have an unpopular leader, called Mona Sahlin, who is widely considered to be less than competent. This and their recent move to the left helps explain their poor polls. However, they are the default choice of many Swedes, and are helped by the fact that many voters dislike the type of cutbacks in social welfare programs the center-right has carried out.
2. The Left Party.
Former communists, for many years financed by Moscow. After the fall of the Soviet Union they became more of a normal party. However the hard left in this party recently cleansed many of the reformers who wanted to modernize, pull down pictures of Lenin from the walls of their headquarters and move more towards the center. A drag on the Social Democrats, although they have a loyal core of supporters and a pretty sharp debater as their leader.
The party in addition to communists gets many votes from immigrants, feminists and anti-American activists.
Their (1948-2006) mean vote share is 5.6%.
Their latest election result (2006) was 5.8%.
Current poll average 5.6%.
If the combined left wins, it will be the first time in history this party is allowed to be a part of the government. Before, if the combined left had a majority the Social Democrats tended to form a one-party government, while relying on the votes of the smaller left parties to form a parliamentary majority.
3. The Green Party.
Founded in 1981 as part of the environmentalist movement. Basically Swedish hippies.
Has done very well in Sweden, where voters are extremely environmentally friendly. Votes with the left, but is considered much more centrists on economic issues than the Left Party.
They currently have a competent and popular leader, Maria Wetterstrand, and are doing well in the polls. Especially strong support among young people in large cities and among the highly educated. The Green party social-liberalism is quite hip right now, so they are getting a lot of people who support them for identity reasons. They and the Liberal People’s Party are the "Stuff White People Like" parties.
Their (1982-2006) mean vote share is 3.9%.
Their latest election result (2006) was 5.2%.
Current poll average 9.8%
The Green and the Left party support completely open borders, free immigration for anyone who wants to live in Sweden, combined with keeping the welfare state.
4. The Moderate Party.
Full disclosure: I vote for this party.
Conservative/classical liberal party. Was quite neo-liberal from the late 1980s until early 2000s. After Fredrik Reinfeld and Anders Borg took over the party moved to the center with resulting electoral success.
The policy shift can be summarized as taking their previous top 10 agenda, dropping points 3-10, but keeping the first two, which were lower taxes and reform of the education system. Another part of the re-branding was a change in attitudes, not to be seen as the “upper class” party (remember that Sweden unlike the U.S has a historical aristocracy, disliked by ordinary Swedes).
Their (1948-2006) mean vote share is 17.9%.
Their latest election result (2006) was 26.2%.
Current poll average 32.1%
It is quite rare for the Conservative Party to be larger than the Social Democrats. If this holds true on election day it will mark a teutonic shift in Swedish politics. The strength of the Moderate Party is it’s extremely competent leadership, including Prime minister Fredrik Reinfeld, finance minister Anders Borg and foreign minister Carl Bildt.
5. Liberal People’s Party:
Social-Liberals who sort of like the market economy. Our version of centrist Democrats.
This party is strong in large cities, amongst teachers and among academics (the "enlightened" classes).
Has a decently popular party leader far to the ideological right of his party, a former military guy.
Their historic (1948-2006) mean vote share is 13.7%.
Their latest election result (2006) was 7.5%
Current poll average 6.3%
6. The Center party.
The party for agrarians and small town folks. Is shrinking, because they moved sharply to the right in a failed attempt to get voters from the Moderate party. This party is the most pro-small business in Sweden, and the only one pushing to de-regulate the labor market.
They also attempted to modernize their image as a modern, cosmopolitan party. What instead happened was that some of their rural base, who are hardly Laissez-faire fanatics, felt alien in this new party and stopped voting for them. The Stockholm voters in turn patted the Center Party on the heads, and countinued to support parties with less dirth under their historic fingernails.
Their (1948-2006) mean vote share is 13.1%
Their latest election result (2006) was 7.9%
Current polls average 5.0%
7. The Christian Democrats.
Swedish Christians, and mild social conservatives. Often dangerously close to the 4% threshold. They are looked down by the media and the by the chattering classes, but actually have lots of smart people and are slowly moving toward intellectually founded conservatism (as opposed to instinctual conservatism that Swedes do not respect).
Their historic (1964-2006) average vote share is 4.1%
Their latest election result (2006) was 6.6%
Current poll average 4.5%
8. The Sweden Democrats:
Anti-immigration party, who are outside of parliament, and slowly growing. Has historical ties to the neo-nazi movement. The 2.9% they got in 2006 was surprisingly high. Strong among first time voters and in conservative Scania. Very active online. They are in the middle on economic issues, proposing to cut immigration and foreign aid and use to money for tax cuts and to improve the living standard of nursing homes for the elderly. Interestingly the only party in Sweden that could be described as fully socially conservative.
Since this party is despised by the establishment, it is hard to poll them, because people do not admit they belong to it. They will most likely not be allowed on many TV debates, despite the fact that they have as much support as several other small parties.
Their current standing in the average of the polls as of writing is 4.6%.
Going by the two last elections they will get 20-30% more votes than the polls indicate, perhaps more.
A very important question is what happens if the Sweden Democrats become the swing vote, something which is very likely.
So will The Sweden Democrats (Sverigedemokraterna) get into parliament? I am certain they will.
Average poll result for the Sweden Democrats since 2006:
As the election approaches, I expect the small parties to do better. What the election will hinge on is the verdict of the voters on the ability of the Alliance to “create” jobs during a crisis (and, as the right hopes, on the leadership qualities of Reinfeldt vs. Sahlin).
Right now the center-right (blue) is ahead, really for the first time since they took power almost 4 years ago.
Currently the odds markets are indicating a 53% chance for the center-right to win. This promises to become a closely contested election. Almost as exciting as the World Cup if you ask me...
Update:
Go to this page for live results of the vote.
Go to http://super-economy.blogspot.com/2010/09/uppdate-on-swedish-election.html for live update.
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