A political map of American voters

Using the 2004 National Annenberg Election Survey (a large super-poll of the American public) I can create a political map of self-described political opinion in 2 dimensions: fiscal and social conservatism/liberalism. We also have data on how each group voted. Sample size is 7000.


This is particularly important for europeans to understand.

Social conservatism was a somewhat stronger predictor of voting for Bush in 2004 than Fiscal conservatism.

Here is a nicer picture with all the data:


Unlike what is implied in libertarian political theory, fiscal and social conservatism are strongly correlated. About 60% of voters are located on a one-dimentional axis.


Still the group who like me is fiscally conservative but socially liberal/moderate is significant, at 16.3% of the voters. Libertarian leaning voters are in this group. The segment that is fiscally moderate/liberal but socially conservative is smaller at 11.7%.

Furthermore, the first group is much more common among the elite and opinion leaders than the second group. That is the direction the Republican party should take.

Fiscal Liberal, Social Conservative is the amusing sounding ideology of 30 Rock character Dennis Duffy, and is the smallest segment in the U.S. The joke works because the educated elite accept fiscal conservatism, some even admitting grudgingly that that is the intellectually superior position. Social conservatism on the other hand is (somewhat) unfairly viewed as having no intellectual foundation.

People who are both Fiscally and socially conservative are dominant at 30% of the population. Fiscal and social liberal is only 11%.

However, in the U.S liberal has become a dirty word (because of the failed liberal experience in the 1960s and 1970s). So many don’t admit to being liberal. Moderates are thus more Democrat than Republican. Many of those who call themselves moderate are really liberal or progressive.

Fiscally liberal, socially moderate/conservative voters did not vote for Bush. The reason is that this group is to large extent made up of minorities.