Unemployment and the Japanese Labour Force

I'm afraid there are going to be rather a lot of charts on this post, since it is a complex story, and it is important to try and understand what is happening to unemployment in Japan, since if you don't you won't get to see why this recovery isn't a "normal" one. First off the statistics bureau have published the July monthly results from the Labour Force Survey. The headline story is, of course

Japan July 2007 Industrial Output

Numbers released today by the Ministry of Trade, Economy and Industry showed a fall in industrial production in July, a development which will provide further encouragement for BoJ bearishness on interest rates. Industrial output fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4 per cent from June.In this case it doesn't so much seem to be the weather which is being given the reponsibility, but rather the

Japan July 2007 Income and Expenditure Survey

Spending by households dropped in Japan in July for the first time in seven months, according to data released today by the Statistics Bureau. Here's the chart:As usual, we are being told that the weather is the problem:Spending by households unexpectedly dropped for the first time in seven months, as a typhoon kept shoppers at home and a tax increase weighed on sentiment.BloombergIn fact, just a

Japan Consumer Prices July 2007

Japan remained mired in deflation for the sixth straight month in July, according to figures published by the statistics Office today that showed a 0.1 per cent fall in core consumer prices (excluding fresh food) over July 2006. The news obviously will make it even harder for a Bank of Japan which was already struggling to find arguments to justify a raise in interest rates at its September

Projections on Japan's Fiscal Liabilities

According to Bloomberg this morning the Japanese government may well have to set aside a record fraction of the budget just for debt interest payments in the next fiscal year as outstanding bond issuances rise and interest rates increase. According to Japan government officials - who spoke to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity - interest payments on government bonds and debt-redemption costs

Japan Retail Sales July 2007

Well, the Japan retail sales numbers (preliminary data) for July are now out, and sales are actually up on June, but down significantly (2.2%) year on year. The Financial Times covers the story here, and Bloomberg here.As is becoming customary in the traditional media, bad weather is presented as the principal culprit:The value of retail sales was 2.2 per cent lower in July than a year before –

Economic Impact of the Cabinet Changes

Well it is now hardly breaking news that Abe has shuffled his cabinet. Still there are some interesting points to comment on from an economic perspective. Among the most important details are the fact that Hiroko Ota remains as Economic Minister, while former Minister of State in the Defence Agency Fukushiro Nukaga becomes Finance Minister.Hiroko Ota has once more been quick off the mark in

Japanese GDP

I think we were all more or less on holiday here at Japan Economy Watch when the Q2 2007 GDP data came out, but Ken Worsley over at Japan Economy News did cover the release.Scott in a comment to Claus's last post points us to a Bloomberg article which discusses a Goldman Sachs research note about whether or not a recession in Japan is now "inevitable". The good news, I suppose, is that a

Still Holding at the BOJ

Cross-Post from Alpha.SourcesAt this point you could of course argue that with the current and ongoing uncertainty about the robustness of financial markets (i.e. a big black void of downside risk to just about any position) the BOJ's decision to keep rates on hold yesterday was expected. However, if we look at the way expectations of a hike have been trending steadily down in the past month it