Summer Hike at the BOJ?

Cross-post from Alpha.Sources Things are suddenly getting interesting in Japan and at the BOJ with markets solidifying for a August hike on the one side and somewhat deteriorating economic fundamentals on the other. Yesterday, the BOJ chose to hold rates steady with a vote of 8 to 1 but by taking a quick sweep across market indicators they all indicate that an August hike is in the bag or

BoJ Rate Decision Vote

The fact that the BoJ vote on holding the interest rate were it is came in at 8-1 is causing a bit of a stir:"The 8-1 vote left an impression that BOJ board members were more cautious about a rate hike than previously thought, spurring short covering in bonds," said Takeo Okuhara, a bond strategist at Daiwa Institute of Research.Now back at the end of June Morgan Stanley's Takehiro Sato

Japan's energy dependency

A key quote from the Bloomberg article that Edward referenced in the previous post is the statement that "rising food and energy prices are eating into the cost of living." While the USA's dependence on foreign oil is frequently discussed in mainstream media, it is important to remember that Japan is even more dependent on foreign supplies of essentially all fuels; whether it be oil, natural gas

Consumer Confidence on the Slide

According to Bloomberg this morning:Japan's consumers were the most pessimistic in more than two years last month as higher taxes, falling wages and lost pension records chipped away at people's confidence in the economy. An index that measures confidence among households with two or more people dropped to 45 in June from 47.3 in May, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. Sentiment was the

Machinery Orders and the Economy Watchers Index

Data coming out of Japan at the moment is really mixed at the moment. Really, as Claus Vistesen notes here, we are all busily holding our breath right now.The latest news on the machinery orders front seems, on the face of it, quite positive on the surface:Japan's machinery orders, a key indicator of corporate spending plans, rose at triple the pace economists predicted, reinforcing expectations

Savvy Housewives and Mum and Pop Investors

This time Bloomberg has a new angle on all this:Yen sales by Japanese mom and pop investors this week exceeded professional traders' bets against the currency on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.Net short positions on the yen against the dollar, or wagers Japan's currency will fall, reached $1.1 billion among traders using borrowed funds on July 4, according to Tokyo Financial Exchange. Based on

Japan's Leading Index

Well, the latest reading on the leading index seems to be causing some controversy. Earlier this week the Tankan came in with an unexciting but basically positive reading.The Bank of Japan's closely watched Tankan survey of business confidence showed the large manufacturers' diffusion index, which subtracts pessimists from optimists, unchanged at +23. However, the index for medium and small