Sunday, January 26, 2003

Japan: Don't Sqeeze Me Too Tight

Japan economic specialist Richard Katz, writing in today's Financial Times, questions the advisability of turning the fiscal pressure screw in Japan. It's difficult to see how a country suffering deflation (or the imminent threat of it ) can benefit from further fiscal tightening. If in doubt ask the Germans.

It is not easy for a rich country to get itself into
Dollar Up, or Dollar Down

So which way is it this year for the greenback? A bevy of commentators (including the IMF and the OECD) regard the dollar as seriously overvalued. In principle I agree. The real problem is to identify a sound substitute. In this piece Morgan Stanley's Stephen Len argues for the dollar downside effect dominating. (Why is their global economic forum so full of talent, is
Japan About to Try to Lower the Yen

Signals coming out of Japan, difficult as they are to read at times, seem to indicate that a change in exchange rate policy may be imminent. On Mondayprime minister Junichiro Koizumi added his voice to a growing body of evidence that his government, which regards the yen's rise as reflecting external weaknesses rather than any significant improvement in its

Thursday, December 5, 2002

Is Japan Trying

This question may seem a strange one, but appears to be worth asking since one US economist after another has been suggesting that, one way or another, the Japanese are simply not trying to find a way of getting out of their mess. First Cecchetti got the ball rolling with the following in the Financial Times:

"What about the zero nominal interest-rate floor, the point at which

Monday, December 2, 2002

Japanese Unemployment Continues to Rise

Japan's industrial production fell last month and families cut their spending after unemployment rose to a record high, adding strength to the growing view that Japan's economic recovery may be running out of steam. Of course much of the future for unemployment now depends on what really happens in the wake of the NPL debate.

Production unexpectedly fell
Japan: What is The Economist Missing

According to the Economist it WAS just possible to find a nugget of good news about Japan�s economy on November 19th. However rose-tinted glasses, they suggest, were needed to spot it. On a day which saw another round of declines in the share prices of Japan�s biggest bank the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) changed its mind
Japan Banks Claim to Tackle Non-Performing Loans

According to the Financial Times there are signs the pressure being put on Japan's banks to deal with their bad loans is starting to bear fruit in the fact that the country's largest lenders used the publication of their first half results to simultaneously announce more aggressive action to tackle the problem. my feeling is it would be better to