Whither the USD-JPY?

Well it wasn't all that long ago that Claus was asking us when and whether the Japanese authorities would feel the need to intervene to stop the - at that point (9 Nov) - seemingly inexorable rise of the yen against the dollar. Obviously a few short weeks in currency markets are a very long time (which is why playing them has to be such a complicated business I feel), and as we can see from the

Inflation, Employment and Various Interpretations of What is Happening In Japan

Well, promises are promises, but a birthday is a birthday, and since today it is my turn - and being a good Capricorn - what better way to spend it than in updating my excel files with all the new data coming out of Japan. And a veritable raft of data it has been, since there are releases about Consumer Prices, Family Income and Expenditure, the November Labour Force Survey, building starts, (

Japan Building Starts November 2007

Japan's housing starts fell for a fifth straight month in November, indicating that stricter rules for obtaining building permits, and the knock-on effects of the US sub-prime crisis may continue to act as a drag on economic growth in the first quarter of 2008. Ground broken on new homes and condominiums fell 27 percent from a year earlier after falling 35 percent in October and 44 percent in

Merry Xmas and A Happy New Year

Well, a Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year to all our readers from me (Edward), Scott and Claus. Thank you for taking the time and trouble to pass-by. This blog will now - failing major and surprising new developments in the global economy - be offline till the end of the first week in January, or till after the festival of Los Reyes Magos in Spain (for those of you who know what this is all about).

Japan in 2008 ... ZIRP Coming Closer?

None of the writers here at Japan Economy Watch are professional forecasters and analysts per se. Yet, with what seems to be happening 'next' in Japan I can not help but think that you have been extraordinarily well served here at JEW during the past year. As such, let us have a look at what I said on Japan (and indeed the global economy) about a year ago as we stood on the brink of 2007.(...) we

Japan Exports November 2007

Japan's export growth slowed in November as the U.S. housing cut demand for automobiles and construction equipment, and the knock-on effect of the sub-prime turmoil started to be noted in other developed economies. Also worthy of note this month is that exports to China fell back slightly, from a revised 1.17 trillion yen in October to 1.14 trillion yen in November. Likewise exports to Europe,

Japan Economy 2007/2008, The Moment Of Truth?

Well the Japan Cabinet Office have just published their monthly economic report together with their their revised forecasts for fiscal year 2008. As could be expected, downward revisions are to be seen everywhere, except in the plans for government spending, which commentators expect may well be up (details of the 2008 budget are due to be released tomorrow), but even this last detail seems

Japan services Index October 2007

Japan's services sector rebounded slightly in October from the biggest drop in six months. Japan's tertiary index, which is a gauge of money households and businesses spend on phone calls, power and transport etc, climbed 1.1 percent in October after dropping a revised 1.8 percent in September, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo.Consumer spending accounts for more than half of Japan's economy

Japan in a 'Mild Recession?' ... Sounds about Right to Me

During 2007, myself and especially Feldman and Takehiro Sato from Morgan Stanley have tended to move pretty much in unison when it comes to the economic analysis on Japan (non colluding!). Of course, this is very much due to the fact that I always make sure to read, at least, what the MS' Japan analysts have to say before saying anything myself on Japan. In this way, it is one thing to

Japan Consumer Confidence Index November 2007

Japanese households became the most pessimistic they've been in almost four years in November as fuel and food prices rose even while wage growth remained stationary, leaving consumers even less willing and able to spend. An index that measures confidence among households with two or more people slid to 39.8 last month from 42.8 in October, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. A reading below

Japan Economy Watchers Index November 2007

Well, even while machinery manufacturers ride on the back of strong export demand, the internal situation in Japan continues to deteriorate. The latest indication of this is the November edition of the Economy Watchers Index. This survey of barbers, shopkeepers and others who deal with consumers, fell for an eighth month to 38.8 from 41.5 in October, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo (

Japan Machinery Orders October 2007

Japan's October machinery orders rose at a rapid 18.7% year on year clip, signaling that companies have been increasing spending plans to meet Asian and European demand for chips, cars and electronics. Private sector orders climbed 12.7 percent to 1.08 trillion yen ($9.7 billion) from September, when they fell 7.6 percent, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. But the biggest push came from

Japan Q3 2007 GDP Revised Down

Japan revised down its third-quarter GDP growth estimate today, surprising both market participants and the great majority economic observers - although not, it should be noted, those of us who run the Japan Economy Watch Blog, or posters at Global Economy Matters (and remember Claus was writing this last piece back in January). Neither will the result exactly catch the ever readable MacroMan

Japan Index of Leading Indicators October 2007

Well, perhaps the only positive thing that can be said about the latest release from the Cabinet Office of the Index of Leading Indicators is that it is above last months zero reading. The index, which is Japan's broadest indicator of the outlook for the economy was in contraction mode for a third consecutive month, a signal that growth may well be stalling. The leading index was at 20 in

Japan Company Capital Spending Q3 2007 and Japanese Wages in October

Japan's companies cut spending for a second quarter between July and September according to data from the Finance Ministry today. Capital spending fell 1.2 percent in the three months ended 30 Sept 2007 (when compared with Q3 2006) after a 4.9 percent year on year drop in the previous quarter.Profit at the 24,000 companies surveyed fell for the first time in five years, giving them less cash to